Saturday, May 1, 2021

SCRIPT - The Conquests of Taiwan (1624-1683) [1/5/2021]

 

 
The Conquests of Taiwan (1624-1683)
 
Hi, and welcome to Strategy Stuff. In the 17th Century, the East Asian island of Taiwan or Formosa underwent a dramatic political transformation, as seen in the three conquests of the island: the initial colonization by the Dutch, the takeover by the independent army of Zheng Chenggong, and the final capture by China’s Qing Dynasty. In examining these conquests, we will focus on the following questions:
 
                - Why was Taiwan worth conquering?
                - What was behind the success of each conquest?
                - and How did these answers evolve as Taiwan grew increasingly developed?
 
With these questions in mind, let’s head to the maritime world of Early Modern East Asia.
 
 
Taiwan Before the Conquests
A glance at Taiwan will reveal several characteristics that will be relevant to this video. First, the island is separated from Mainland China’s Fujian Province by 200 kilometers of ocean, known as the Taiwan Strait. Strong winds, high waves, and the May-to-October typhoon season make navigating the Strait a challenge for inexperienced sailors.
 
Taiwan itself can be divided into two geographic zones. The northern and eastern parts are characterized by steep mountain ridges, isolating them and restricting the amount of agricultural land. By contrast, the flat, tropical plains of the southwest are perfect for growing crops – assuming that somebody first puts in the money to develop them.
 
Last is the archipelago of Penghu, 50 kilometers off Southwest Taiwan and 150 kilometers off Mainland China. Its position makes it a critical strategic point: defenders can use it to deny shelter to invaders braving the Strait, while attackers can use it as a forward base to blockade, raid or assault the entire Western coast.
 
During the early 17th Century, Taiwan was inhabited almost exclusively by Austronesian Aborigines, ancestors to a group of peoples ranging from Madagascar to Tahiti. Numbering about 100 thousand in Taiwan itself, the Aborigines lived in small villages, practiced slash-and-burn agriculture, and engaged in ritual warfare against each other.
 
The island also served as a refuge for pirates and traders – basically the same people – from China or Japan. These settlements were small, temporary and unauthorized, as both governments generally saw Taiwan as wild and unworthy of attention. But events would soon bring the island to the forefront of East Asian politics.
 
The East Asian Maritime Trade
From a regional perspective, Taiwan sits at the crossroads of the Western Pacific, overlooking the sea lanes running between Japan, China, Southeast Asia, and the Americas. Maritime trade had always been conducted along these routes, but its nature and extent changed dramatically in the 16th Century.
 
The primary driver was the development of China’s economy. 150 years of stability and development under the Ming Dynasty had fostered a vibrant manufacturing and export sector, of which the silk trade was most desirable to foreigners.
 
At the same time, the increasing complexity of the economy had also created a huge domestic demand for silver currency. As such, a global silver-for-silk trade was born. The silver mainly came from two places: one was Japan, and the other was Spanish America, either directly via Spain’s colony in the Philippines, or indirectly through the Portuguese Empire and its outpost of Macau. The Ming would also trade for sugar and spice, and those came from the ‘Spice Islands’ of the Indonesian archipelago.
 
Taiwan initially contributed little to this global economic flow, exporting a small amount of precious metals, sulfur and deerskins. However, its geographic position made it a natural place of exchange between traders, especially since the island was beyond the jurisdiction of the Ming and its burdensome trade regulations.
 
Throughout the early modern period, this maritime trade was mainly carried by Chinese and specifically Fujian traders. They achieved this despite receiving little support from the Ming, who saw their wealth and network as a potential threat. To protect themselves, the traders self-organized into coalitions comprising of legal merchants, illegal smugglers, overseas communities and government contacts. For now, these coalitions were focused on protecting their own activities – aka trade – and interfering with the activities of rivals – aka piracy. But perhaps one day, they could be turned towards a political cause…
 
The other relevant group of traders were the Iberians. Portugal had been in East Asia since the early 16th Century, with a string of outposts stretching from Malacca to Macau to Nagasaki. Spain would then join them from the opposite direction, establishing Manila as their regional base. Having brought along their own silver, the Iberians didn’t need to change existing trade patterns to get what they wanted. The union of Spain and Portugal in 1580 further stabilized their duopoly on the European segment of the trade.
 
Then came the Dutch. Despite being banned from Iberian ports due to their war against Spain, independent Dutch traders had arrived in East Asia by 1600. In order to better compete with the established competition, the Dutch state quickly organized these traders into the Dutch East India Company, a shareholder corporation with a monopoly on Dutch trade within Asia. As a spearhead of Dutch imperial expansion, the Company was granted considerable administrative, diplomatic and military powers in the region. However, its primary goal always remained: to tap into the East Asian trade to benefit shareholders back home.
 
There was a problem with that, though: the Dutch had no silver or anything else to trade with East Asia. But soon enough, the Company would come up with a solution, one that would carry significant consequences: they would use military force to seize key producers or exchanges within the trade, use those advantages to install their own monopoly, and through that extract profits out of the existing inter-regional trade. The stage was set for a new wave of disruption across maritime East Asia.
 
Conquest 1: The Dutch (1624-42)
With their strategic goal set, the Dutch launched a flurry of attacks against key components of the East Asian trade, especially those controlled by the Iberians. They started by targeting the Spanish silver convoys to the Philippines; at the same time, they began a long-running campaign to wrest the Spice Islands from the Portuguese. Dutch ships would pirate the seas off Manila and Macau, forcing the Southeast Asian trade towards their own posts on Java.
 
With their forces scattered across all of Asia, the Iberians found it impossible to coordinate a counter-attack against the Dutch. Instead, they focused on fortifying their positions, particularly Manila and Macau. The Dutch tried their best, but they simply couldn’t conquer either of those posts, which shut them out of the lucrative China segment of the trade.
 
After another failed attempt against the two cities in 1622, the frustrated Dutch finally decided to set up their own post in an inferior position, which was the island of Penghu. Unfortunately for them, Fujian officials saw Penghu as Ming territory, and they ordered the Dutch to leave. The Dutch tried to pressure the officials by pirating the coast, only to have the provincial fleet sail over and besiege their camp. Reluctantly, the Dutch agreed to move on.
 
But all was not lost for them. Despite their victory, the Fujian officials recognized that these foreigners would cause far less trouble if they could trade with China. Luckily for everybody, there was an untamed island just off Penghu and beyond Ming jurisdiction, where the Dutch could set up shop and trade unofficially with the Fujianese coalitions. Accordingly, in the spring of 1624, the Dutch established Fort Zeelandia at Tayouan Bay on the southwest coast of Taiwan.
 
The Dutch were right to see Taiwan as the last resort – the area would need a lot of work before it could sustain the trading and plantation economy the Dutch envisioned. Even worse, Company Headquarters wanted to see stable political control first before granting funds for such work, and this was no easy task given the size of the island and the minuscule Dutch force.
 
The biggest challenge to political control were Chinese and Japanese traders. Backed by powerful entities, neither group accepted that the Dutch had the authority to control them, even when inside Zeelandia. The Dutch, working from a European concept of sovereignty, argued that the traders were in Dutch territory, and so had to submit to Dutch authority. The traders replied by arguing that only their home governments possessed such authority over them. In reality, all this was just political theater, because the traders knew that, ultimately, the Dutch in Taiwan wouldn’t risk provoking the Chinese or Japanese.
 
Nevertheless, the Dutch still tried, and were quickly taught a lesson. The Japanese traders went back home to complain, triggering a devastating official Japanese embargo on Dutch trade, as well as a few war scares that almost made the Dutch evacuate Taiwan. The Dutch were left with no choice but to exempt the Japanese and beg the Shogun for forgiveness. In any case, the Tokugawa were getting tired of overseas entanglements, and removed themselves as a factor by recalling all overseas Japanese in 1635.
 
As for the Chinese, their strength came not from the Ming state, but in their powerful trading coalitions that could ruin Zeelandia’s trade with a single command. The Dutch ended up playing a highly deceptive game with the trading coalitions, in particular against a rising organization led by a certain Zheng clan. At times, the Dutch would help the Zhengs against rival coalitions; at times the Dutch would fight them in the name of ‘piracy suppression’. One year the Dutch would ink trading agreements with the Zhengs; the next they would encourage subordinates to break away from Zheng rule. The result was a compromise where Zeelandia would be guaranteed the business of a set number of ships each year.
 
Compared with disputes over sovereignty, the territorial challenges to Dutch control were much easier to deal with. With their extensive experience in colonial diplomacy, the Dutch effectively exploited Aboriginal village feuds for their own ends. Like other colonial conquests, the Dutch allied with a weak village against the local hegemon, used their military might to overthrow said hegemon, and then assumed its place to obtain the submission of everybody else. Like all effective colonizers, the Dutch also ruled via non-military means: they sent missionaries to convert the Aborigines, and restructured village councils into village chieftaincies, headed by handpicked loyalists who owed their power to the colonial hierarchy.
 
Spain also contested Dutch control over Taiwan. After two failed attempts at attacking Zeelandia, in 1626 Spain built a rival fort at Jilong or Kelang Island on the northern coast, claiming all of Taiwan as its own. But the Spanish position was too isolated to threaten the Dutch southwest, and they were soon bogged down with the same problems that had plagued Zeelandia. In fact, the Spanish colony might have unintentionally extended the Dutch presence, because fear of an Iberian-dominated Taiwan Strait was probably what convinced the Dutch to hang on through the worst of the Japanese war scares. Ultimately, with the Dutch still around and Jilong perennially unprofitable, the Spanish abandoned their colony in 1642.
 
By 1635, Taiwan was finally deemed secure enough for Company money to start coming in. The Dutch had already established Fort Provintia in 1625 to prepare the Southwest plains for agriculture; now, local development began in earnest. To lay the groundwork for a plantation economy, the Dutch built infrastructure, drew up a legal code, and introduced the relevant crops and livestock. Most significantly, they also brought about 15 thousand Fujianese colonists to Taiwan. By 1650, Taiwan had become an important place of exchange in East Asia, and a significant sugar producer to boot. Most importantly, the Company – and its shareholders – were reaping great profits from the island.
 
All in all, this first conquest of Taiwan did not go too badly for the Dutch. They were not the first ones to be interested in the island – both Spain and Japan had made vague claims in the 1590s – but they were the first to solve the many problems associated with a Taiwanese conquest.
 
The Dutch succeeded because they set realistic goals, were careful with Company resources, and could swallow humiliating but favorable concessions. They chose Taiwan only when there was no better option, began development only when the island was politically stabilized, and compromised whenever their military power proved insufficient. In doing so, their colony avoided draining scarce Company resources, and resisted the premature disillusionment that had doomed the Spanish effort in the north.
 
This strategic discipline probably came from the corporate organization of the Dutch East India Company, which was structured to ruthlessly focus on one specific metric and that was profit. This devotion to money, which is also the basis of most forms of power, allowed the Company to use its resources more efficiently than larger, more distracted states, and may explain why the corporation has become a major form of human organization today.
 
At the same time, the Dutch also had a major blind spot in their conception of sovereignty. They believed that they had exclusive authority over their territories, yet this concept clashed with East Asian perceptions of legitimate authority. Despite their initial experiences with Asian traders and warnings from Company Headquarters, the Dutch still seemed remarkably relaxed about importing large numbers of Fujianese into Taiwan, perhaps assuming that Chinese officials would no longer intervene with these migrants. This mistake would soon cost them.
 
Conquest 2: Zheng Chenggong (1660-62)
Even as the Dutch were altering trade patterns in maritime East Asia, even more titanic shifts were occurring on the continent. After decades of warfare and peasant unrest, the Ming Dynasty collapsed in 1644, paving the way for China’s conquest by the Manchu Qing Dynasty. By 1646, the Qing were in Fujian Province, forcing the Fujianese trading coalitions to re-examine their political allegiances.
 
Chief among these coalitions was the one led by the Zheng clan. Like many before him, its founder, Zheng Zhilong, had built up his coalition through business success, personal connections, backroom dealing, and violence. Unlike them, Zhilong had also wisely extorted an official position from the embattled Ming court, who made him an Admiral with a mandate to eliminate pirates. With it, Zhilong not only had carte blanche to eliminate his rival coalitions, but also had the legitimate authority to keep his followers firmly united and subordinate to him. In this way, the Zhengs were able to dominate maritime trade from Japan to Siam.
 
But now the Ming was gone, and with it, the admiralship that lay at the heart of Zhilong’s coalition. Zhilong initially funded a Ming court-in-exile in Fujian as a replacement, but soon decided that a Qing position might serve him better. He therefore surrendered, but contrary to his expectations, the Qing sent him into exile.
 
His son, the famous Zheng Chenggong or Koxinga, had a different approach: he would rally the Zheng coalition around a new purpose of Ming loyalism. By leading resistance to the foreign Manchus, not only could Chenggong retain the loyalty of his Han Chinese followers, he might also attract new ones who wanted a Ming restoration. With this advantage, Chenggong seized control of the coalition, and commandeered its considerable resources towards the Ming cause.
 
However, shared purpose was not the same as legitimate authority, and Chenggong’s coalition saw themselves more as partners than as subordinates. If they disagreed with Chenggong, they often felt that they could argue with him, disobey his orders, and even break away from his leadership. And there was plenty of room for disagreement when it came to Ming loyalism.
 
From his base in Xiamen Island in southern Fujian, Chenggong had the choice of three strategic directions. He could directly help the last Ming court-in-exile by making a perilous journey to southwest China. He could join with nearby loyalists to attack the rich Yangtze Delta, in the hopes of triggering a general uprising. Or he could do what most in his coalition probably wanted, which was to pay lip service to the Ming while exploiting the chaos to extend Zheng trade and influence.
 
Throughout the 1650s, Chenggong ended up veering between all three strategies. He first led an expedition to the southwest, only to turn back when the Qing threatened Xiamen. He then spent the next few years raiding the Fujian coast, acting as a mere local nuisance even as the Manchus crushed the southwestern Court. Then in 1659, he suddenly assaulted the Yangtze Delta, only to be swiftly repelled by Qing forces. With each change of strategy, disagreeing or disillusioned groups would abandon Chenggong’s coalition, and some even defected to the Qing.
 
By this time, Chenggong was in a real bind. The Yangtze failure had cost his coalition much, but his trade network could make up the losses. More worrisome was his recognition that direct Ming loyalism wasn’t working: the southwestern Court had fled to Burma, no loyalist revolt had greeted him in the Delta, and his forces stood no chance against the Manchu cavalry.
 
He was now the only significant loyalist force left, and the Qing were focusing entirely on him. Their navy was too weak to even threaten the Zheng maritime trade, so the Manchus decided to wall off the China market from Chenggong. First they banned all maritime activity, then they forced the entire coastal population to move inland. Finally, with the help of defectors, they broke the Zheng underground trading ring within China itself.
 
As Chenggong saw it, staying in Xiamen would only see the Zheng coalition wither and die, while Taiwan on the other side of the Strait could provide the security and territory for a more permanent existence. What’s more, the Dutch there had been weakened economically and politically, with the Company levying unpopular taxes on the Fujianese colonists to offset the collapsing profits from the China trade. They had also started pirating the Zheng trade network again, and taking Taiwan would be a suitable punishment.
 
Chenggong tried to justify his plan by arguing that a Taiwan expedition was merely an extension of what the coalition had previously done, namely paying lip service to Ming loyalism while extending the Zheng network. But his coalition responded with stiff opposition. A few die-hard loyalists claimed to prefer death on Ming soil rather than suffer an inglorious exile. Most were less melodramatic: they simply had no desire to be pioneers in what they considered an ‘uncivilized’ land, even if the alternative meant living under the Qing. Ultimately, Chenggong was only able to convince a small part of his coalition to join his Taiwan expedition, with the rest of his followers grudgingly agreeing to supply them.
 
Chenggong had already been laying the groundwork for such an expedition years ago. Like most Chinese officials of his time, he believed that he had some legitimate authority over overseas Chinese. Unlike other officials, the Zheng maritime network allowed him to actually exercise that authority, particularly with the Fujianese in Taiwan. Chenggong began ordering them to do his bidding: first by facilitating diplomacy with the Dutch, then by collecting intelligence on the colony, and finally, even demanding taxes from them and ordering them to return to Fujian.
 
Chenggong’s actions were met with increasingly vigorous Dutch protests. Things came to a head in 1659, when the Dutch cut contact with the Zhengs and prepared for war. Their defensive strategy was simple: fortify Forts Zeelandia and Provintia, bring all edible foodstuffs into their walls, and hold out until relief forces arrive.
 
There were two points of worry with the Dutch plan. First, Penghu was controlled by the Zhengs, making it impossible to stop any invasion or supply convoy from Xiamen. Second, the first batch of Company reinforcements would not take the Zheng threat seriously. Apart from their belief that the ‘weak’ Chinese could not possibly capture modern Dutch forts, they also noted that Xiamen was currently being pressured by a Qing army, so Chenggong surely wouldn’t try to cross the Strait. In classic Company fashion, they decided that the Governor was wasting resources, and decided to make better use of them by sailing away and attacking Macau again.
 
The newcomers had utterly misjudged the situation. The Zheng navy easily blocked the Qing army from landing on Xiamen Island and eventually forced it to withdraw. Immediately afterward, Chenggong took the 20 thousand men who would follow him and on April 1661, he invaded southwest Taiwan, where the Fujianese colonists helped him land. The one-and-a-half thousand strong Dutch garrison locked themselves into the forts, watching helplessly as the rest of the island, including the Aborigine chieftains, surrendered.
 
But soon, it turned out that the Zhengs had also utterly misjudged the situation. Based on the intelligence he had gathered, Chenggong assumed that an April campaign would let his troops live off the land and score a quick victory, so he had only brought 5 days’ worth of rations with him. This decision was highly imprudent - even before reaching Taiwan, a storm had forced his army to shelter in Penghu, where they had already consumed most of those rations.
 
Even worse, the Zhengs now realized that Taiwan was not as bountiful as they thought, as most of the colony was geared for sugar, not rice production. Even the capture of Fort Provintia in May failed to yield more than a month’s worth of food, and with hunger setting in amongst the army, Chenggong was forced into a long and bitter siege of Zeelandia.
 
Realizing he was not prepared for this, Chenggong launched various attempts to obtain Zeelandia by storm or negotiations, all ending in failure. Inevitably, this led to another situation that he had hoped to avoid - the arrival of a second batch of Dutch reinforcements in September, bringing the garrison back to one-and-a-half thousand, even as the Zheng army had shrunk to 15 thousand. But that wasn’t even the worst news: the commanders in Xiamen now saw the expedition as an utter fiasco, and began delaying supplies to Chenggong to force his recall. One commander even defected to the Qing rather than reinforce Taiwan any further.
 
Chenggong was on the brink of failure. But to his credit, he had at least kept his army together, and had overwhelmed several attempts by the Dutch to break his siege lines. A chance defection revealed a weak position in the Dutch defenses, which Chenggongs intelligence had somehow overlooked all this time. Summoning up their remaining strength, the Zhengs took the position, and the Dutch meekly surrendered in February 1662.
 
Compared with Taiwan’s first conquest by the Dutch, this second conquest by Zheng Chenggong was carried out with less care. His strategy for a quick seizure of Taiwan was nearly defeated, thanks to fundamental intelligence errors, especially regarding Taiwan’s food wealth. These occurred despite the extensive Zheng network on the island.
 
Two problems may have contributed to these mistakes. First, the nature of the Zheng coalition made it difficult to plan and execute on good strategy. Fundamentally, Chenggong could not count on the good faith or obedience of those followers who opposed the Taiwan expedition. As a result, he might have crafted an overoptimistic Taiwan strategy, hoping to convince skeptics and reassure himself that he would not be away from Xiamen for long.
 
Second, the Zheng takeover also reveals the limits of non-military forms of power. Despite his extensive economic and political influence in Taiwan, Chenggong still had to use military means to eject the Dutch. Furthermore, this influence still couldn’t prevent the military mistakes and omissions that nearly defeated the expedition. We should also note that Chenggong’s cultivation of non-military power proved just as threatening to the Dutch as the military variant, causing them to prepare for invasion two years before it actually occurred.
 
Zheng Chenggong would not long outlive his victory, dying four months after the conquest. To the anger of his Xiamen subordinates, once established in Taiwan he began shifting his tone on Ming loyalism, de-emphasizing direct action on Mainland China in favor of preserving Ming culture through protecting overseas Chinese. His stated target on this front would have been the Spanish Philippines, whose Governor hastily fortified Manila in response. But actually, his first real target would have been his own commanders on Xiamen, whose disillusionment had by now turned into open defiance.
 
Conquest 3: The Qing (1681-1683)
Zheng Chenggong’s death did not heal the breach within the coalition. In fact, it only intensified as news came of the Ming court-in-exile’s destruction in late 1662. With direct Ming loyalism truly dead, the Zheng coalition quickly fell into a spiral of coups, counter-coups and defections. Seeing this, the Qing allied with the vengeful Dutch, and within a year had captured all the coastal islands, including Xiamen. The new head of the Zhengs, Chenggong’s son Zheng Jing, was left with Taiwan, Penghu and less than 100 thousand subjects.
 
Fortunately, the Zhengs had the Strait. Their sailors remained the only ones who could navigate its waters safely, even within the Qing fleet, which was made up of Zheng defectors. The Qing understandably wouldn’t trust this politically unreliable force, and so decided not to try an invasion. Working alone, the Dutch briefly re-established themselves at Jilong Island, but like the Spanish before them, got bogged down and withdrew after four years. Zheng Jing now had some breathing space to rebuild his shattered organization.
 
In a way, the loss of much of the original Zheng coalition helped Jing, because what remained was now firmly committed to a Taiwan strategy. He now developed on Chenggong’s final strategy, and began laying the foundations for an independent existence. Ming loyalism was de-emphasized and replaced with what would be called the ‘Kingdom of Tungning’. The colonial infrastructure would be repurposed to grow foodstuffs and other basic materials. The Zheng trading system was re-established across the East Asian seas, and uniquely for a Chinese dynasty, the Tungning government would take an active role managing overseas trade. Diplomatic contact was established with the traditional friends of Japan and Siam, and English traders were even invited in to counterbalance the Dutch.
 
The key state to deal with, however, remained China’s Qing Dynasty. In 1667, Jing began negotiations with them, seeking a ‘Korea solution’ where he would become a Qing tributary but still enjoy complete autonomy over internal policy. This last point was vital for a state whose elites still wished to preserve Ming culture.
 
The Qing, worried that Tungning still aimed to restore the Ming on the Mainland, countered with an offer to make it a ‘Feudatory’, where Jing would enjoy extensive military powers but would otherwise submit to Qing internal policy. This offer was rejected, but in reality the Qing was OK with Tungning’s de facto independence. They recognized that Jing was uninterested in them, and so felt no need to assume the risks and costs of invading Taiwan. Gradually, they disbanded their fleet, let people back onto the coast, and focused their attention on continental affairs.
 
Freed of continental pressure, Tungning was poised to pursue a genuinely maritime strategy, posing as the protector of overseas Chinese while using their influence to capture, dominate and profit off the East Asian maritime trade. This was pretty much the strategy that had made the Dutch a major power in the region, and similarly, by 1674 Tungning was ready to start things off with an intervention against the Spanish Philippines.
 
But just at this moment, the Three Feudatories of southern continental China revolted against the Qing, and for a moment seemed poised to drive the Manchus out of former Ming territory. Caught up in the general euphoria, Zheng Jing decided to invade China and re-install the Ming.
 
It was a disastrous decision. By heading back to Mainland China, Tungning was not only fighting on disadvantageous territory again, it also confirmed the Qing’s worst fears of it being an unreformed bastion of Ming loyalism. For six years, Tungning impoverished its treasury and trade to capture the ruined cities of Fujian, only for the Manchu armies to arrive and clear out the southeastern coast, triggering yet another round of defeats and defections. Zheng Jing himself died in 1681, just long enough to see a decade’s worth of development go up in smoke.
 
Once again, a weakened Tungning faced Qing China across the Strait, but this time, the Qing were bent on conquest. They had already re-banned maritime activity as an economic blockade against the island, and redoubled their efforts to attract defectors. With the end of war on the Mainland in 1681, they began assembling an expeditionary fleet out of their existing forces and defectors, and in the process, two strategies emerged to deal with Tungning.
 
The first camp, comprising of Fujian bureaucrats under Governor-General Yao Qisheng, proposed an indirect approach. Rather than risk the Qing fleet and its experienced sailors in a naval battle with Tungning, Yao proposed to use the main Qing fleet to threaten Penghu and pin down Tungning’s fleet there, while a smaller force would travel north and land at Taiwan’s northern coast, possibly to secure the defection of the regional commander. Yao expected that this would completely demoralize the Tungning court and secure a surrender.
 
By contrast, the second camp, comprised of ex-Zheng military men under Shi Lang, Admiral of the Fujian fleet, proposed a very direct approach. Admiral Shi would take the entire fleet to Penghu, destroy the Zheng fleet in a decisive battle, and obtain Tungning’s surrender that way.
 
From the Qing viewpoint, both strategies had their strengths and drawbacks. Yao’s plan assumed, likely correctly, that the Qing fleet was not on par with the Zheng fleet, and so offering battle would be an incredibly risky endeavor. Yet the solution of landing in northern Taiwan had never produced a successful capture before, and instead had often resulted in the attacker being bogged down trying to secure the area. And with the Qing busy with Russia and the Dzunghars to the north, the last thing they needed was a running sore in Taiwan.
 
Shi Lang’s plan offered one chance for a quick and decisive solution, but its success essentially depended on luck of weather and the Admiral’s skills. Ultimately, the Qing court decided to go with the military man, giving Admiral Shi overall command of the enterprise in November 1682.
 
What happened next showed that Admiral Shi’s plan was a throw of the strategic dice. Bad winds kept the Qing fleet in port until June 1683, when court pressure forced the Admiral, despite his better judgment, to depart with 200 ships. He reached the outskirts of heavily-fortified Penghu in July, where he met a Tungning fleet of equal size and was initially defeated.
 
After a week perilously anchored off a small islet, Shi Lang received reinforcements and tried again, this time surrounding and destroying the Tungning fleet. Despite this victory, the Qing fleet itself was so damaged that the Admiral refused to push on towards Taiwan. He was right not to push his luck – had a storm struck the fleet at any point in the campaign, the Qing would likely have been the ones utterly defeated.
 
To his credit, Shi Lang correctly predicted the effects of his victory at the Battle of Penghu. Immediately, regional commanders began defecting to the Qing, culminating in the King of Tungning’s surrender in August 1683. The Qing considered abandoning Taiwan back to the Aborigines, but ultimately accepted the Admiral’s recommendation to garrison the island as a forward post. However, they rejected his other recommendation to continue developing the island, and deported many Fujianese and Zheng colonists back to the Mainland. Taiwan would fade from the international stage for the next 150 years.
 
The third conquest of Taiwan by the Qing was, as mentioned, a throw of the strategic dice. The Qing would have preferred not to waste their resources on conquering the island, but Zheng Jing’s unwise decision to re-engage in continental affairs made it impossible to ignore Tungning. Even then, the Qing’s choice of strategy and post-victory policy showed that they simply wanted Taiwan to disappear as a problem as quickly as possible, so they could get back to more serious enemies on the steppe frontier. Even as an enemy and despite its maritime potential, Taiwan would only ever exist at the periphery of a continentally-focused China.
 
Conclusions
In examining the three conquests of Taiwan in the 17th Century, we can draw out a few similarities. Firstly, the island’s size, separation by the Strait, and interior geography acted as large force multipliers, allowing its regimes to hold off much larger enemies based on the Mainland. Even an amphibious landing was not necessarily enough for victory, as the north and southwestern parts of the island formed separate power centers that could survive without the other. Capturing Penghu, however, exposed both centers to potential attack, encouraging demoralization and the collapse of political will.
 
Secondly, Taiwan’s development relative to coastal China determined how desirable it was as a conquest. Despite its regional position at the crossroads of maritime trade, the island’s low level of development throughout this period meant that potential conquerors preferred owning points on coastal China, only seeing Taiwan as a ‘conquest of last resort.’ After all, most southeastern Chinese ports or islands more-or-less occupied the same regional position, and they could be made productive with a much smaller military, political or monetary investment.
 
Lastly, Taiwan simply could not be conquered or defended through non-military forms of power alone. Dutch attempts to convert the Aborigines didn’t prevent the latter from submitting to the Zhengs. Zheng Chenggong’s ties with the Fujianese colonists may have hindered his effort against the Dutch. And defection alone wasn’t enough to hand Tungning over to the Qing. One can argue that non-military power smoothed the task of conquest, but in the last accounting, Taiwan’s conquest still required assuming the costs and risks of battle.
 
The Dutch, facing limited military opposition, had the freedom to carefully plan and execute an efficient strategy to establish control. The Zheng coalition, pressured from within and without, adopted a flawed strategy that only grim determination carried to victory. And the Qing essentially made a successful bet that allowed them to quickly capture the island. Semi-intentionally, these three conquerors would bring Taiwan under Mainland Chinese influence and lay the groundwork for the state that exists today.
 
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